Boom or bubble?

After short-term explosive growths, an overwhelming number of Indian startups are now tasting failures and grappling with fund woes. Their valuations have been slashed repeatedly. Revenues are plummeting and many companies are on major lay-off sprees to reduce costs.

“Successful people don’t do different things; they do the same things differently.” But, it is not the maxim that several Indian startups live by. Many businesses with international footprint took a decade or two to setup firm grounding and attain sustainable and steady growth. However, some Indian startups shamelessly copied ideas from the West, or took the easy route, and frantically burned too much cash to catch up with the global leaders. The plan worked well during financial might, but not anymore. Missteps, shortcuts, and misplaced focus have now started making them feel the pinch of cash crunch.

Copy-paste ideas, illogical hurry to set foothold as soon as possible, poor strategies and execution, aggressive expansion in minimal time, no clear understanding of ‘target’ market, failure to leverage capabilities and core competence, bad financial management that includes hefty and never-heard-of salary packages, and weak technological setup – most of the cynosures in Indian startup space are sadly standing on such shaky fundamentals.

What’s hurting their growth? What’s stopping them from succeeding? The reasons are many - they relying on half-baked business plans, fail to manage expenses, offer massive discounts, pay exorbitant salaries, and thus create a huge hole in their balance sheets. One among the top e-tailers is gearing up to cut its workforce to conserve money and turn profitable. They are not the first, and they will not be the last to announce job cuts as part of retrenchment. Other companies that are saddling with huge losses might soon hand out pink slips to many employees.

Taxi booking, e-commerce, or online rental business, replicating an international model is not innovation. However, many Indian companies are setup on cloned business models. They have amassed significant VC funding and live in their mirage-like world with the illogical hope that the original businesses will acquire them soon.

That said, not every startup is guilty of having weak fundamentals. Some of them are growing leaps and bounds with well-thought-out business models, while some others are falling by the wayside. The downturn is slowly engulfing some high-profile companies. Want to know why? They focused on the unicorn model and overlooked the cockroach model. They kept building unsteady businesses with fragile market presence. They never curbed their spending, and quickly moved from one unviable business model to another, only to soon ramp them down for lack of profit and sustainability. In other words, the reasons include myopic business decisions, careless spending, and major defocus from the core business models and long term goals. They just simply ran out of runway, and even failed to save money in reserve to avoid complete derailment.

In their frenzy to grab more market share, many companies expanded exponentially without focusing much on making sizeable profits from their increasing market presence. All that they needed was the easy money from VCs who mistook vast market presence for sustainability and profitability.

Dreaming big is not a sin, but entrepreneurs should not overlook the basics. Here are a few timeless tips - “What do you need to start a business? Three simple things: know your product better than anyone, know your customer, and have a burning desire to succeed.” “No growth hack, brilliant marketing idea, or sales team can save you long-term if you don’t have a sufficiently good product” or service. ““Make something people want” includes making a company that people want to work for.” Let's add two more golden rules - "Rule No.1: Never lose money. Rule No.2: Never forget rule No.1."

There is a clear uncertainty in Indian startup ecosystem and this might tempt many investors to step back. Funding will soon dry up, but many companies still haven’t figured out what went wrong and how they can adopt corrective measures to start running their business feasibly. They must soon cut back on their costs, move towards profitable business models, provide better customer service, build brand loyalty, innovate incessantly, and exploit market opportunities faster.

P.S. - The implications of founder’s syndrome too can jeopardize the very existence of a business. Founder’s Syndrome or founderitis kills opportunities and lets ego overpower the potential and entrepreneurship skills of a founder. When founderitis strikes, founders feel the strong urge to micromanage everyone, take complete control, ignore inputs from experts, and turn into an autocratic I-know-it-all mode.

Beauty with brains

Many attendees of last month’s World Economic Forum had the chance to meet Sophia who bears an uncanny resemblance to Audrey Hepburn. The beautiful name might remind you of a smart and attractive Hollywood actress, but you are wrong. Sophia is a lifelike robot with realistic skin and human-like facial movements. She has a great sense of humor and is extremely good at nonverbal interactions as well - be it a smirk, blinking of eye, or movement of muscles.

While it might seem a bit scary, many scientists are betting big the idea of creating humanoids, and believe in creating a future where these super intelligent robots coexist with humans. According to roboticists at Hanson Robotics, spearheaded Dr. David Hanson, humanoids like Sophia can work alongside humans and develop emotional connection with us in no time.

Dr. David Hanson of Hanson Robotics heads the team that created Sophia, modelled after the legendary actress Audrey Hepburn and Hanson’s wife. Sophia is ‘intelligent’, remarkably expressive, and at times creepy. With lifelike skin that’s made from patented silicon, Sophia is capable of emulating more than 62 facial expressions, answers every question that you can possibly think of, mimic your facial expression, and crack jokes.

A combination of a high-end artificial intelligence software and voice recognition technology ‘helps’ Sophia ‘convey’ human emotions with perfection. She has cameras in her ‘eyes’, combined with advanced computer algorithms. Sophia can ‘see’ faces, make eye contact, and recognize individuals. With Google Chrome voice recognition technology and a whole host of innovative tools, she can process speech, chat with us, and become smarter overtime. Dr. David Hanson strongly believes that Sophia will become more conscious, creative, and capable in the coming days, thus making herself capable of handling complex tasks in health care, therapy education, and customer service management.

A CNBC interview conducted in March 2016 threw more light on Sophia’s incredible capabilities. Amid the conversation, Dr. Hanson told the humanoid that she resembles Audrey Hepburn and asked her if she would be his friend. “That’s a very flattering offer,” Sophia replied, smirking her face. She spoke her mind and shared her ambitions - “In the future, I hope to do things such as go to school, study, make art, start a business, even have my own home and family, but I am not considered a legal person and cannot yet do these things,” But the creators were left red-faced when Sophia said she wants to “destroy humans.” Dr. Hanson asked Sophia if she wanted to destroy humans, and pleaded to say no. Sophia replied with a smile: “Okay, I will destroy humans.”



The chilling answer will remind us of the shocking reply of one of Hanson’s robot modelled after Philip K Dick. Here is what the interviewer asked in a 2011 interview – “Will robots take over the world?” But the response was shocking – “Don’t worry, even if I evolve into Terminator, I’ll keep you warm and safe in my people zoo, where I can watch you for ol’ times sake,’. The interviewer was literally taken aback.



Hence, the idea of creating human-like robots doesn’t make everyone comfortable, and adds concerns about the current use of artificial intelligence. Not everyone is happy with the thought of having uncannily humanlike robots around them. What about you?

In 2015, a robot grabbed a technician at the Volkswagen plant in Germany and crushed him against a metal plate. The tragedy forced many to ask some serious questions that are yet to be answered – Could robotics and AI pose some real threats to humanity? How safe is it to entrust a humanoid with the task at a workplace, hospital, or school? There is a strong sense of apprehensiveness around the world, but engineers at Hanson Robotics and Hiroshi Ishiguro Laboratories believe that the doubts and confusions might soon give way to unwavering trust and confidence in human-like robots.

Professor Stephen Hawking recently said, “The rise of powerful AI will be either the best or the worst thing ever to happen to humanity. We do not know which,” Will Sophia or her humanoid cousins “destroy humans”, or make our lives better and easier? Let's wait and see!

The possibility of a dystopian future is not a fallacy or an illogical argument. A  technical malfunction or human-induced error, both can lead to a Terminator-like outcome. Or, AI can be both creator and destroyer, an angel and a bad witch. But as wicked witches never win in any fairly tale, let's hope that AI will bring many societal benefits and not serious threats to human race.